by Selin Girit (BBC)
Turkish television channels have
been reporting from the Syrian border every top of the hour with
pictures showing the deployment of troops, tanks and armoured vehicles.
"The countdown has begun for Turkey's operation against Afrin," said one pro-government channel.
Its
correspondent underlined that the troops on the border were already
pointing at what the authorities term terrorist targets within Syria.
There were also reports of Turkish artillery shelling the area.
Earlier
this week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said an operation against the
Kurdish-held enclave in northern Syria was imminent.
"We will get rid of terror nests one-by-one in Syria starting with Afrin and Manbij," he said.
Mr Erdogan's announcement follows the US decision to form a 30,000-strong border security force
predominantly made up of Kurdish YPG fighters, whom Ankara regards as a
national security threat and an off-shoot of the militant group PKK
that has waged a war in the southeast of Turkey for over three decades.
An
attack on Afrin would be an extension of the Euphrates Shield
Operation, which targeted the Islamic State group along with the Kurdish
forces and placed the area from Azaz to Jarablus under the control of
Turkey-backed rebels. The eight-month operation officially ended in
March 2017.
'Increasingly cornered'
"The
Euphrates Shield Operation started in a climate when a few months
earlier a Russian jet was downed by Turkey, when US co-operation with
YPG forces was growing stronger and when Ankara increasingly felt it was
pushed out of the game in northern Syria," says Metin Gurcan, a
military expert.
"Thanks to Euphrates Shield, Turkey was able to
get back in the Syria game. The timing of the operation on Afrin should
be treated the same way. Ankara now feels increasingly cornered.
Kurdish-held Afrin enclave lies in the north-west of
Syria, alongside the Turkish border. It is separated from the other
Kurdish-controlled areas in northern Syria. One of Turkey's main
concerns is to prevent the establishment of a "Kurdish corridor" along
its border.
Many believe that the US decision to form a mainly
Kurdish border security force actually drove Turkey to bring its Afrin
operation forward.
"If the US really forms such a border force,
then there will be a totally different equation in Syria," says Ahmet
Kasim Han, an academic on international relations.
"This would
point to a process that could potentially end with the forming of a
YPG-PKK state in the north of Syria. Washington should have known that
Turkey would react."
The operation against Afrin is expected to be
carried out together with Syrian opposition fighters, as was the case
with Euphrates Shield.
The attack reportedly will start with
Turkish artillery units opening fire and clearing the land, followed by
rebel units moving in. They will be followed by Turkish ground forces.
'New relationship'
But
Metin Gurcan argues that an operation without the backing of an air
force would make things very complicated for Turkey. He believes that is
why the need for Russia's backing for the Afrin operation is crucial.f
"Russia has to open its air space for this operation. Otherwise it might be very costly.
"Also,
there are around 300 Russian soldiers in Afrin. If Russia gives a green
light, then Turkish forces could clear out Afrin in one day. Otherwise,
it could turn into a nightmare," he says.
Ahmet Kasim Han agrees
that an operation without Russia's approval would be very costly for
Turkey. But he thinks Moscow's approval could have very serious
consequences as well.
"In the unlikely event of Turkey reaching an
agreement with Russia, along with a tacit approval of the Syrian
regime, then that would mean a watershed event in Turkey's relations not
only with Russia but also with the West," Mr Han says.
"If
Turkey's foreign policy moves closer to Russia as such, we could
probably start talking of a new world order and a whole new relationship
between Nato and Turkey," he says.
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